Scaling in a Time of Rising Deficits: What’s Out of Your Control and What’s Not

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) is projected to add another $3 trillion to the national deficit by 2034 (the current deficit is $1.7 trillion). Some sources claim that the bill will “slash the deficit”, but for this post, let’s assume there will be an increase. Here’s how it might play out and impact business growth: 

When government debt grows, it can trigger an increase in interest rates.
Higher interest rates make mortgages, credit cards, and business loans more expensive.

This slows down consumer spending, which can trigger a domino effect:

• Companies freeze hiring or lay people off

• Capital becomes harder to raise

• Acquisitions become harder to finance  

• Valuations shrink

• M&A slows down

• Deals take longer to close

This isn’t speculation—it’s a cycle we’ve seen before.

We’re all familiar with the recession of 2008 and the impact it had on business growth. An even bigger hit to businesses was in the 1980s when huge deficits and inflation led the Fed to raise rates over 19%. The ripple effects were brutal: the economy hit a deep recession, unemployment grew past 10%, and industries that are impacted by interest rates like real estate, advertising, and manufacturing took a beating. 

We’re not there yet, but we’re in the setup phase. Here’s what to keep in mind: 

You can’t control the wind.
But you can absolutely adjust your sails.

There are plenty of things that are going to impact your business over the next few years that you don’t control, like investor behavior, consumer confidence, or government spending decisions. 

But what you do control is how you respond, how you lead, and how you build resilience into your business now before the slowdown shows up on your doorstep.

The companies that come out ahead in these cycles don’t wait around hoping things improve. They move early, with discipline.

Here’s what you can do: 

Focus on recession-resilient customers: Shift your strategy toward buyers who keep spending even when everyone else pulls back—healthcare, logistics, financial services, consumer staples. You want demand that holds.

Make better decisions, faster: In these conditions, slow decision-making is expensive. Use AI, data, and cross-functional alignment to tighten your feedback loops. Since market conditions can change weekly, you’ll have plenty of opportunities to put your decision-making system to the test..

Get efficient: Don’t wait to be forced into cuts. Streamline now. Automate where you can. Reassign talent toward high-impact work. Efficiency is how you create margin and cash to fund your own growth. 

Align your leadership team: Growth-stage companies fall apart at the top first. Get your exec team fully aligned on what matters and what doesn't. Say no more often and get focused.

Deepen relationships: During uncertainty, trust becomes a competitive advantage. The companies that keep winning are the ones that built real loyalty internally and externally. Customers, partners, and employees can become key to growth.. 

Some industries are more exposed and need to move now.

Ad Agencies: Clients will slash ad budgets if consumer demand softens. Discretionary industries like real estate, construction, and retail will be first. If you’re an agency, focus your Ideal Customer Profile on essential sectors (healthcare, CPG staple products, fintech). Price on outcomes, not output. Build recurring revenue through retainers and long-term partnerships.

Commercial / Industrial Products: Equipment sales stall when rates rise and financing gets expensive. Target buyers who can’t afford to have their businesses slow down like utilities, food logistics, waste services. Create options for financing, leasing, and recurring service contracts.

Real Estate Service Providers: When rates go up, transactions go down. Buyers sit on the sidelines. Double down on stable asset classes like cold storage, medical offices, and self-storage. Offer services beyond the traditional ones like advisory, asset management, and tenant experience.

If your business already serves recession-resilient customers, now is the time to push harder. You can acquire market share while others are pulling back. Hire top talent that just got laid off and transition your talent pool to A-Players. Invest in long-term contracts with vendors and customers that are motivated in order to weather the storm. 

In every economic cycle, there’s a group of companies that accelerate while the rest fall back. Why not be one of those? 

The bottom line is that adding $2.8 trillion to an already $1.7 trillion deficit is going to shift the economic landscape for all of us (For a great cheat sheet of the OBBBA, check out the overview by Chief Executive Magazine here). 

You can’t stop interest rates from rising. You can’t force buyers to feel confident.

But you can build a business that scales because of the pressure, not in spite of it.

Adjust your sails now. 

The wind’s already changing.

See if your company is ready to withstand uncertainty and complete the Scaling Up Assessment here.